Mr Opinionated’s Oscar Predictions

The biggest awards ceremony in Hollywood, the Academy Awards, take place this Sunday. With the date fast approaching, I thought I’d look at each category and give my predictions for each, I won’t be covering every category as I don’t feel qualified to predict Best Costume Design, for instance, so only the creative awards will be predicted. Without any further adieu, let’s get down to it.

Best Original Score

Nominations:

  • Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
  • Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
  • The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams

One of the things I noticed during the first viewing of the latest Star Wars movie, was the epic and sweeping score by legendary composer John Williams. He never fails to hit a home run for the Star Wars movies and this ranks way up there with the best.

Best Original Song

Nominations

  • Mighty River (Mudbound) – Mary J Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
  • Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name) – Sufjan Stevens
  • Remember Me (Coco) – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
  • Stand Up For Something (Marshall) – Diane Warren and Common
  • This Is Me (The Greatest Showman) – Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Winner:

This Is Me (The Greatest Showman) – Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

This is one of the many categories where I don’t envy the Academy. Really, it’s a two-horse race between two great songs; Remember Me and This Is Me, both have equal chances of winning, and have great pedigree behind them, but I think This Is Me will edge it on Sunday night.

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominations:

  • The Boss Baby – Tom McGrath and Ramsey Ann Naito
  • The Breadwinner – Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
  • Coco – Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
  • Ferdinand – Carlos Saldanha
  • Loving Vincent – Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart.

Winner:

Coco – Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson

Year after year the Academy show their contempt for animated movies, the fact that The Goddamned Boss Baby is nominated is all the proof you need of that, of the category there are only really two stand outs, Loving Vincent a strikingly beautiful and original animated piece of art and Coco, the latest Disney-Pixar masterpiece. I believe the Academy will go with old reliable and give the gong to Coco, God-forbid they push the boat out and give it to something original.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominations:

  • Call Me By Your Name – James Ivory, based on a novel by Andre Aciman
  • The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber based on a book by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell
  • Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green based on Marvel comic books.
  • Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin based on the memoir by Molly Bloom
  • Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees based on a novel by Hillary Jordan

Winner:

Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green.

No surprises here, the best comic book movie since The Dark Knight, should walk away with the honours, however there’s a chance Molly’s Game could take the honours, or even The Disaster Artist, really in a just world, Logan should win, let’s hope it does.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominations:

  • The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
  • Get Out – Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

Winner:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

This could easily go to The Shape of Water, whose screenplay is also exceptional, but I don’t think there’s been a better script this year than Three Billboards. Sharp and darkly humorous as well as tragic and heart-breaking, it’s a rollercoaster ride.

Note of apology:

I haven’t seen enough of the nominated performances in the Best Supporting Actress category, therefore I don’t feel like I can predict it, my apologies.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominations:

  • Willem Dafoe as Bobby Hicks – The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson as Chief Bill Willoughby – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins as Giles – The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer as J. Paul Getty – All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell as Officer Jason Dixon – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner:

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another unenviable task for the Academy, two incredible performances in one movie from Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson, as well as a stellar performance from Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water. But Sam Rockwell should claim the prize, for portraying a character with an incredible arc, and almost managing to steal the movie. Almost.

Best Leading Actress

Nominations:

  • Sally Hawkins as Elisa Esposito – The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand as Mildred Hayes – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie as Tonya Harding – I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan as Christine “Lady Bird” McPherson – Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep as Katharine Graham – The Post

Winner:

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There can only really be one winner here. Frances McDormand gave a powerhouse performance that leaves everyone else in the shade. Only the Academy’s obsession with Meryl Streep stands in the way of her winning a second Oscar.

Best Leading Actor

Nominations:

  • Timothee Chalamet as Elio Perlman – Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis as Reynolds Woodcock – Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya as Chris Washington – Get Out
  • Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill – Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington as Roman J. Israel – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Winner:

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

I’m not a betting man, but if I was, this would be the easiest bet I’d ever take, the ony thing that stands in his way is another Academy favourite Daniel Day-Lewis is also nominated, paired with the fact that it’s allegedly Day-Lewis’s final performance, that could be a factor, but I can’t see it, there’s only one winner here.

Best Director

Nominations:

  • Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele – Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
  • Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
  • Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water

Winner:

Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water

Had this been a post of who I would want to win as opposed to a predictions of who I think will win, then Christopher Nolan would take this award, although I wouldn’t have any problem with Del Toro winning, he deserves it too, it’s been a particularly tough year I think to pick any one movie over another.

Best Picture

Nominations:

  • Call Me By Your Name – Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Morabito
  • Darkest Hour -Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski
  • Dunkirk – Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird – Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O’Neill
  • Phantom Thread – JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi
  • The Post – Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh

Winner:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh

What a list to have to pick from, as much as it’s impossible to tell sometimes what the Academy will vote for, it’s even harder here with such a stellar line-up, any of them could win it, but I’ve opted for Three Billboards, using the BAFTAs as a template for the Oscars isn’t always wise, but I feel that Three Billboards is the kind of movie the Academy vote for Best Picture, therefore I’m plumping for that.

 

And there you have it, my predictions for this Sunday’s Oscar ceremony, if you agree or disagree, why not tweet me your thoughts? I’d love to hear what everyone thinks!

 

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